EPL #5: Will records be made or broken?

Welcome to EPL matchday five and the first game after the first international break of the season. Today’s fixtures promise excitement, offering teams the chance to make or break records.  

• In the last 10 years, Everton has not won Liverpool in the EPL;
• Expect a ‘Partey Saturday’ at Etihad plus an Arsenal win or draw;  
• Tottenham may win with over 2.5 goals;
• Perchance, Dominic Calvert-Lewin may maintain his 100 percent scoring form in the EPL;
• Likewise, stats show a likelihood of both teams scoring in at least three of matchday 3 fixtures.

To keep you informed ahead of a relaxed viewing, DATAPHYTE reviewed team statistics and predicted outcomes from all the EPL matchday four fixtures. 

Saturday 17 October 2020  

Everton VS Liverpool, 12:30 pm 

The age-old feud between these teams comes to a head 12:30 West Africa Time. And Everton looks to change its fate after losing for a decade to derby rivals, Liverpool at the EPL. But, to be fair, they have lost just one of the last eight home games against Liverpool, drawing seven. Overall, Everton’s brilliant home record against Liverpool alongside their performance so far makes for an exciting matchup. 

Au contraire, league favourites, Liverpool head into matchday five after a humiliating 7-2  defeat away to Aston Villa. But perhaps what’s interesting is the implication of a derby matchup given The Reds’ lacklustre defence. 

Nonetheless, Liverpool will seek retribution in the form of a win against The Toffees. Everton, however, will not take this lying as they seek to extend their winning run. And seeing as both teams have maintained a 100 percent scoring form since the season’s debut, a festival of goals awaits. The player to look out for is Dominic Calvert-Lewin.  Dominic has scored in each of Everton’s Premier League games this season, netting six in total.

Chelsea VS Southampton, 3:00 pm  

The Blues will look to balance their array of attacking talents with their defensive woes in a matchup with Southampton. Although, Chelsea kept a clean sheet in their last EPL game, earning them a 4-0 win over Crystal Palace. The win, however, follows a humbling defeat to Liverpool and a 3-3 thriller at West Brom.

In contrast, Southampton made back-to-back wins before the international break, including a 2-0 convincing win over West Brom. As an improving side, Southampton will hope to extend their winning streak against Chelsea. Howbeit, their statistics against Chelsea and top quality attackers do not reflect this possibility. Southampton has lost 4 of their last 5 games against Chelsea, drawing 1. More so, Southampton’s 5-2 at home to Spurs represents how they fare when faced with top quality attackers. 

Chelsea has scored three or more goals in three of their four league games this season; while Southampton’s last meeting with an elite club saw the net bulge seven times. Based on these statistics, we surmise 2.5 goals in this face-off.

Manchester City VS Arsenal 5:30 pm 

Guardiola will come up against his former student, Arteta when Arsenal travel to Manchester to play against Manchester city. Recall that in a similar fixture last season, Arsenal came away reeling from a 3-0 defeat. Arteta and Arsenal will be keen to make amends for this defeat with a resurgent Arsenal side. 

With only a single point in their last 2 games, Manchester City’s disappointing season start may continue as they return from the international break. More so, Manchester City gaffer, Guardiola is likely to face more selection issues with the unavailability of his star players because of injury. 

Meanwhile, Arsenal started this season in excellent fashion with three wins from four so far. Their only defeat so far this season is against reigning champions, Liverpool, at Anfield.

Both Arsenal and Manchester City have averaged exactly two goals per game this season. With the potential attacking threat and instability in the defence of both teams, we expect goals from both teams in this encounter. However, if new signing Thomas makes his debut, it could be a ‘Partey Saturday’ with three points and a clean sheet for Arsenal.

Newcastle VS Manchester United, 8:00 pm

Newcastle has continued to improve every matchday since their 3-0 defeat to Brighton on matchday 2. Although Newcastle’s improvement is not without a bit of luck. They have gained seven points out of 12, with six goals and eight shots on target this season.   

Playing host to a Manchester United team that lacks confidence at the moment, Newcastle United will be confident of getting a result in this fixture. Worst case, the Magpies will look to grind a result like they did at Tottenham Hotspur. 

Manchester United, meanwhile, will be keen to bounce back from their dismal performance on matchday 4 when they lost 1-6 to Spurs on home ground. Manchester United’s loss in their last match made it two defeats from three this season.  The problem with the united team has not only been the manner in which the drop points. They have been torrid in defence, conceding 11 goals in three games. 

To be fair, Newcastle’s attack might not pose a threat to Manchester United’s shambolic defence. Yet, United ought to be wary of Newcastle’s excellent record at St. James park. Moreover, Manchester United has not won at St. James Park in their most recent meetings.  

Since both teams have averaged 1.5 goals per game, we surmise both teams to score. 

Sunday 18th October 2020 Fixtures 

Sheffield United VS Fulham, 12:00 pm

Relegation favourites, Sheffield and Fulham are yet to gain a point this season. However, Sheffield United has put in more convincing performances than Fulham this season. Also, Sheffield United’s more established back line should help them eke out a win on Sunday. We predict a Sheffield win in a low-scoring match. 

Crystal Palace  VS Brighton 2:00 pm

We can expect an entertaining clash at Selhurst Park, when Brighton comes visiting with their free-flowing brand of attacking football. Brighton’s entertaining attacking style exposes a lot of their defensive weaknesses which crystal palace will look to exploit.

Following two straight defeats, Crystal Palace hopes to regain form as they face-off with Southampton. Recall, they started this season with back-to-back wins against Southampton (1-0) and Manchester United (1-3).

Both teams have seen three or more goals in each of their last three games. We predict over 2.5 goals in this game. 

Tottenham Hotspur VS Westham United, 4:30 pm

Tottenham Hotspur went on the international break on a high note after mauling Manchester United 1-6 at Old Trafford. Their brilliant performance against Manchester United and Southampton will boost their confidence going into this game. 

Likewise, West Ham, who went for the international break following a phenomenal 0-3 win against Leicester. And despite Westham’s poor start to the season with two defeats to Newcastle and Arsenal, they have gained six points against top flight teams: Wolves and Leicester.

West Ham have lost four of their last five meetings with Tottenham, drawing one and losing one. Again, given Spurs recent scoring form, it could be a very tough ask for West Ham to get a result at white- lane. However, given West Ham’s statistics of eight goals in three matches, we expect both teams to score in this encounter. 

Leicester City VS Aston Villa, 7:15 pm

Prior to the international break, West Ham dashed Leicester City’s hopes of establishing themselves as the Premier league pacesetters with a 3-0 home defeat. More so, a cursory look shows Leicester‘s problem lay not just in their last match. Recently, they have struggled in defence, conceding seven goals in their last three premier league games. Worst of all, the international break has not been kind enough to Leicester and their struggling defence. Both of their first choice center backs are major doubts for the clash against Aston Villa because of injuries sustained on international duty. 

Leicester’s defensive struggle will come as good news to Aston Villa, who has now developed a swagger attacking line. The Villains have scored 10 goals in their last two games. This includes 7 goals in their spectacular 7-2 demolition of reigning EPL champions, Liverpool, before the international break.

We surmise a Villa win given their 100 percent record in the EPL. More so, Leicester’s defensive struggles don’t help the situation. Other than an Aston Villa victory, we predict a goal margin of 1.5.

Monday 18th October 2020 Fixtures 

West Brom VS Burnley 5:30 pm

West Brom and Burnley have struggled to win a game since starting this season. While West Brom has recorded a point, Burnley is yet to get a result so far this season. This fixture presents an opportunity for either of them to at least get a result. West Brom have averaged 1.25 goals per game, while Burnley have averaged 1 goal  per game. In terms of chances created, West Brom has created 0.25 chances per match, while Burnley has created 0.65 chances per match. Based on the statistics of average goals and chances per game, we predict a low-scoring game. Our best bet for this game is under 2.5 goals. 

Leeds United   VS Wolves 2:00 pm

Leeds performance in a 1-1 draw against Manchester City before the international break showed their ability to deploy different tactics to get a result. In the first two games of the season, we saw a high scoring Leeds United that also conceded a lot of goals. However, in the last two games before the international break we saw a conservative Leeds United; they gained 4 points from 6 in two tricky games against Sheffield United and Manchester City. Again, Leeds’ attacking and defensive tactical approach makes them unpredictable and interesting to watch.

Elsewhere, Wolves have gone back to their winning ways, defeating Fulham 1-0 before the international break. Wolves’ victory against Fulham is their second of the season. The first was a 0-2 season opener win against Sheffield. 

However, in the season so far, Leeds United have created more chances in a match than Wolves. Leeds have created 1.25 chances while Wolves have created 0.75 chances. More so, Leeds have scored more goals in a match than Wolves. Although, Wolves conceded fewer goals in a match than Leeds. Based on these stats, we predict a Leeds win. 

Predictions for EPL: Matchday