At the heart of Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria lies a troubling narrative of escalating insecurity despite significant investments in defence. Over the past five years, data analysis conducted by Dataphyte on fatalities related to conflict and insecurity has revealed a harrowing reality: the nation is grappling with a surge in disputes and violence, painting a bleak picture of its security landscape.
Between 2019 and 2023, conflict-related events have risen, soaring from 4,808 to 24,306. While there was a temporary decline in 2022, with 11,707 events recorded, the overall trend underscores a persistent challenge that demands urgent attention and strategic intervention.
Understanding the cause of the dip in 2022 can provide insights into possible measures for combating the insecurity in Nigeria.
What’s particularly concerning is the evolution of the conflict dynamics over time. The composition of conflict events has shifted, encompassing variations in explosions, remote violence, protests, and violence against civilians. These fluid changes suggest the adaptive nature of conflicts, presenting formidable challenges to traditional security paradigms.
Despite a substantial capital allocation of ₦285.05 billion for defence in 2023, with ₦10.62 billion earmarked explicitly for purchasing defence and security equipment, the anticipated dividends of a safer and secure nation have remained elusive. Annual budget increments, peaking at ₦4.87 billion in 2023, primarily aimed at acquiring arms, ammunition, and advanced technology, have not yielded the desired outcomes.
Compared to 2023, the defence ministry has experienced an 84% rise in capital allocation in 2024. While this could be a cushion to improve national defence and keep the sovereignty of the nation, there is a need to balance out allocations to the police to effectively address security concerns at the local level.
Insights into Specific Categories
In the wake of the recent attack on civilians and military personnel in the Okuoma community, Delta State, on March 14, 2024, questions surrounding the efficacy of security allocations have gained prominence. The frequency of violence against civilians has exhibited a relentless upward trajectory, reaching a peak of 7,364 incidents in 2023, underscoring the profound impact on non-combatant populations.
The analysis further reveals that battles and violence against civilians constitute the most significant contributors to fatalities, with explosions and remote violence also exacting a heavy toll on lives. Despite being less frequent, riots and strategic developments have proven to be disproportionately impactful, highlighting the nuanced nature of security threats.
The complexity of Nigeria’s security landscape is mirrored in the diverse array of actors involved, ranging from state forces to ethnic militias and extremist groups. Notably, the Nigerian Military Forces account for a substantial portion of fatalities, with a value of 28,457 unique incidences, indicating the intensity of engagements with various armed entities.
Additionally, the involvement of groups like the Islamic State and unidentified armed factions underscores the intricate web of conflicts, where attributing casualties to specific actors proves challenging. Communal militias, such as the Fulani Ethnic Militia, further exacerbate localised tensions, complicating efforts to restore peace and stability.
Geographically, regions like Borno, Zamfara, and Kaduna emerge as epicentres of conflict, grappling with communal tensions, insurgencies, and historical grievances. Borno, in particular, bears the brunt of conflict-related fatalities, a grim testament to the enduring presence of extremist groups like Boko Haram.
Borno has the highest number of fatalities (37,714), indicating a significant concentration of conflict-related events in the region. This state has been historically affected by the activities of extremist groups like Boko Haram and other insurgencies. Zamfara recorded the second-highest number of fatalities (10,085), and this could be attributed to the presence of conflict-related events related to communal tensions or the activities of armed groups in the region.
As Nigeria stands at a crossroads, grappling with escalating insecurity amidst increased defence spending, the imperative for holistic security reforms and targeted interventions has never been more pressing. Failure to address underlying grievances, recalibrate security strategies, and foster inclusive dialogue risks perpetuating a cycle of violence that threatens the nation’s very fabric.
One question comes to mind: ‘With all these allocations to defence, when would insecurity end?’
Get real time update about this post categories directly on your device, subscribe now.
