The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the winner of the Ondo Governorship Election. However, contrary to predictions by Dataphyte, the election recorded the lowest voter turnout since 1999.
Dataphyte had forecast a potential increase in voter participation, noting that the 2024 gubernatorial election was an open contest, which typically generates higher turnout compared to elections where an incumbent seeks re-election.
However, the Ondo state 2024 gubernatorial elections saw the lowest turnout of voters participating in the exercise with data showing only 508,963 votes cast out of 2.05 million people who registered to vote during the election. The low voter turnout may be linked to the political dynamics surrounding the key candidates contesting for the state governorship seat.
Ondo 2024 election results
As it stands, Aiyedatiwa has been returned as the governor-elect in the state by INEC after securing 366,781 votes to defeat his major contender, Agboola Ajayi, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who had 117,845 votes. Aiyedatiwa secured over 73 percent of the votes, winning in all 18 local government areas of the state.
Also, of the 508,963 votes cast, 497,077 votes were valid while 11,886 votes were rejected.
When comparing the number of registered voters over the total votes cast, only 25 percent of voters participated in the election. This means less than 3 out of every 10 voters who registered came out to vote.
Since 1999, voter turnout in Ondo elections has ranged from 30 to 43 percent except in 2003, when the total votes exceeded 950,000 to hit 63 percent voter turnout in the election. However, this dropped in the recent 2024 election to its lowest level despite the increase in the registered number of voters.
The decline in voter turnout in the Ondo election mirrors a similar trend seen in previous off-cycle elections in Edo, Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa states. While Kogi recorded a turnout of over 43 percent, the voter participation in the other three states was below 30 percent.
Prediction and outlier
Dataphyte forecast that the seasonal trend in voter turnout during Ondo’s election might increase voter participation much higher than the 32 percent recorded in the 2020 election. This was due to the fact that the factor of an incumbent governor participating in the governorship race, and seeking re-election for a second term, influenced the turnout of voters in the election over the years.
The political dynamics surrounding the two major candidates likely played a role in the lower voter turnout. Agboola Ajayi served as deputy governor under the late Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, during his first term from 2017 to 2021. Following Akeredolu’s re-election, Lucky Aiyedatiwa was appointed deputy governor. He later became the state’s governor after Akeredolu’s death in December 2023.
In this context, Aiyedatiwa’s participation in the election was unique, as he ran not only as the appointed incumbent governor but also as a candidate seeking to be elected to the position in his own right, thus altering the seasonal trend and making the election an outlier.
Also, the Head of Election Programme, YIAGA Africa, Paul James, told Dataphyte that the potential low voter turnout was due to several reasons like, “Public campaigns by the mainstream political parties did not begin until mid-October, which was barely a month before the elections. This was a violation of the Electoral Act, which stipulates that campaigns should start 180 days prior to the elections.
“The level of citizen mobilization by the political parties was low; most focused on personal attacks during their campaigns rather than addressing key issues or providing necessary voter education. We were concerned that the parties might be conserving resources to manipulate the election outcomes,” he said.
James noted that the low turnout may be attributed to voter fatigue or disillusionment with the current state of the nation.
Meanwhile during the election exercise, observing organizations like the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) highlighted overt attempts to suppress voter participation during the governorship polls saying that voters at some polling units were not allowed to cast their ballots due to glitches in the accreditation process. Others like Yiaga Africa and Civil Society Situation Room, also said that there were widespread incidences of vote buying in some polling units as well as disruptions.
The low turnout in the 2024 election suggests that, if Aiyedatiwa returns for a second term as incumbent governor, it could impact future election trends in Ondo State, potentially resulting in an even lower voter turnout four years from now.
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