The current cash shortage will likely lead to a drop in Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2023, according to analysts.
This is because the cash shortage is already impacting economic activities, especially those of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), negatively. GDP is the monetary value of all economic activities in a country at a period of time, usually a year.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) initiated the redesign of N200, N500, and N1000 notes two months ago. The new currency has been in circulation since December 15, 2022, but he deadline for the phase-out of the old notes has been moved from January 31 to February 10, 2023.
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Over the last three weeks, Nigerians have experienced difficulties swapping their old notes for new ones. They were expected to deposit the old notes at the banks and withdraw new ones over the automated teller machines (ATMs).
While the banks have mopped up cash in circulation outside the banking system, they have yet to progress in replacing the cash in the economy. An analysis of the currency in circulation between October 2022 and January 2023 reveals this.
Data from CBN reveal that N3.23 trillion was circulating in the economy within this period. The proportion of how these monies were controlled differs.
From October to December 2022, N2.7 trillion of the amount was in the hands of various households. This amount was in circulation outside the supervision of the banks. Thus, 83.59 percent of the money in circulation within this period was outside the banking system, so the banks controlled only 16.41 percent.
However, at the later stages of the initial deadline of January 31, 2023, the cash ratio changed, as money in the hands of households dropped to N900 billion. This represents a 66.7 percent decrease in currency outside the bank.
That is, the cash mopped up by the banking system increased from N500 billion at the initial stages to N2.4 trillion in the later stages. This shows a 380 percent increase in the monies controlled by the banks.
The CBN’s cash mop-up has caused a distortion in the economy.
The inability to get the new notes has affected virtually all aspects of the economy, especially MSMEs.
This category of business has been the livewire of the Nigerian economy, accounting for 96 percent of the businesses in the country and employing 84 percent of the total labour force.
Also, the activities of MSMEs contribute 48 percent of the total GDP figure.
The Chief Executive Officer of Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, pointed out that the cash shortage in the economy was being felt heavily by all businesses, especially MSMEs.
According to Dr Yusuf, most of the businesses operated with cash and depended on cash payments. Even when the customers decided to transfer the money via electronic means, MSMEs would not accept it as they could not withdraw such money at the bank due queues, he said.
He said those selling perishable goods were lamenting as people were not coming forth to buy. “Those who are coming forth don’t have cash, and the situation where they can’t withdraw from banks makes it difficult for them to sell to them. As a result, some of them suffer massive losses because they can’t transact without cash,” he said.
Dr Yusuf added that this would affect business output and cause a contraction in the GDP for the first quarter of 2023.