It was on the 13th day of February 2020. In many parts of the country, it was just a day of preparation ahead of Valentine’s Day, which is usually the 14th of February. But in Bayelsa State, it was preparations for the inauguration of David Lyon, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who won the Bayelsa State November 16, 2019 governorship election.
While the governor-elect, David Lyon, was at the Samson Siasia Stadium, Yenagoa rehearsing for his big day (swearing-in ceremony) the following day, the Supreme Court, in its ruling, upheld the decision of the High Court and nullified the victory of Lyon, and his running mate Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo on the ground of forged certificates.
Consequently, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Douye Diri, who came in second place in the November poll, was on February 14, 2020, declared the governor-elect of the state by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and sworn in as the governor of Bayelsa State. Since then, he has managed the affairs of the state.
On April 12, 2023, Douye Diri clinched the ticket of the PDP for a second term in office; the election is scheduled for November 11. The big question that remains is: how was the performance of Diri in his first term?
In this article, Dataphyte examines some of the socio-economic indicators in the state and how they fared under the Douye Diri administration.
GDP, IGR & Fiscal Sustainability
GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. It measures all economic activities conducted within a given area during a year.
The GDP of a region usually gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how that economy is performing.
As noted in an earlier report, time series data on their GDP is scarcely available for many states in Nigeria. As a result of this, we may be unable to assess how the GDP of Bayelsa State has performed since Douye Diri took over the reign of affairs as the governor of the state in 2020.
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However, the 2022 State of States report released by BudgIT last year put the estimated GDP of the state at N4.63 trillion, ranking it as the 9th state with the largest GDP among the 36 states in Nigeria.
With an estimated population of 2.5 million, the GDP per capita of the state stands at N1.8 million, Dataphyte’s analysis shows.
This makes it the state with the second highest GDP per capita in the country, only below Lagos State, which has a GDP per capita of N3.1 million.
IGR
A significant component of a state’s revenue is its internally generated revenue (IGR). IGR is generated by states through various means, including Pay-As-You-Earn Tax (PAYE), Direct Assessment, Road Taxes, and revenue from Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs).
As explained by Dr Princewill Okwoche, an economics lecturer at Benue State University, IGR is a major instrument for social and infrastructure. It is what provides the government with the resources to make responsible decisions that are needed to satisfy the basic needs of citizens in the state.
One of the promises Diri made to the people of Bayelsa State in its 2021 New Year message is to increase the IGR of the state.
According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the state’s IGR indeed increased in 2021, about a 9% increase over the 2020 figure.
The amount of internal revenue the state generated in 2021 was, however, lower than its 2019 figure.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2022, the state had generated N9.59 billion, about N3.20 billion per quarter. Using this figure, the state’s 2022 full-year IGR is estimated to be N12.78 billion, about a 4% drop from the 2021 total IGR.
Beyond the projected drop in the state’s IGR, its heavy dependence on statutory allocations from the federal government cannot be overemphasized.
Between 2020 (the beginning of the Diri administration) to the end of the third quarter of 2022, Bayelsa State received more than half a trillion naira (N581 billion) as FAAC allocation, while it generated only N51 billion as internal revenue in the period under review.
Put together, the state’s total revenue (IGR plus FAAC) between 2020 and September 2022 was N632 billion, with FAAC allocation accounting for 92% of the revenue, while IGR made up only 8%. This indicates a high level of reliance on FAAC allocation, a situation that places the state in a precarious position in the event of a huge drop in allocations from the federation account.
Fiscal Sustainability
Fiscal sustainability is the ability of a government to maintain public finances at a credible and serviceable position over the long term. Put differently, it is the ability of a government to sustain its current spending, taxation, and other policies without risking its financial stability or failing to meet its obligations or promised expenses.
In the last four years, BudgIT has conducted an assessment of the fiscal sustainability of all 36 states in Nigeria. This assessment is usually based on indices like the ability of the state to cover its operating costs solely with its IGR, its ability to meet all operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without resorting to borrowing, its debt sustainability, and its emphasis on capital expenditures over recurrent expenses.
The 2020 report, which corresponds to the year when Douye Diri assumed office as the governor of Bayelsa State, ranked the state as the 28th state in terms of fiscal performance. This represented a significant drop of 18 places compared to its 2019 ranking, where the state held the 8th position.
The 2021 ranking was far worse than the 2020 performance. The state emerged in 36th place, ranking as the worst-performing state in the national fiscal performance ranking.
The state’s 2022 was not any better. The state ranked 35th, only above Benue State.
While the state’s overall ranking is a combination of its performance across the different indices measured, its consistent prioritisation of operating expenses over capital expenditures has been highlighted as a factor that has bogged down the state in terms of its fiscal performance.
The state’s high debt profile is also not left out.
Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) puts the domestic debt of the state at the end of 2020 at N144.13 billion. It increased to N154.61 billion the following year, indicating a 7% increase. But at the end of 2022, the state reduced its domestic debt by 5%, which brought its total domestic debt to N146.37 billion. Thus, making it the 11th state out of the 36 with the most domestic debt at the end of 2022.
On foreign debt, the state is ranked 18th with the most external debt at the end of 2022, with a total of $60.39 million, a slight decline from the previous year.
Unemployment rate
In his 2021 new year broadcast message tagged “message of hope and prosperity,” the governor of Bayelsa State, Douye Diri, vowed that he would create jobs to ensure the youth in the state are actively engaged.
“We will diversify our economy, create sustainable jobs to engage our youth, and explore alternative sources of improving our internally generated revenue,” the Governor promised.
Because NBS has not released new unemployment data since 2020, we may not be able to assess if Diri reduced the unemployment rate in the state through the sustainable jobs he promised he would create.
However, the most recent labour force statistics published by NBS in Q4 2020 pegged the unemployment rate in the state at 37%, above the national average of 34%.
The state’s 2020 unemployment rate was an increase from the 33% unemployment rate that the state had in 2018. With unemployment identified as one of the problems that fuel terrorism and criminality in Nigeria, whoever emerges as the governor of the state will have to pay attention to the increasing unemployment rate in the state.
Poverty rate
Just like every other state in the country, Bayelsa State is grappling with different economic challenges, including a significant poverty rate.
According to the NBS Nigeria Poverty and Inequality Report in 2019, Bayelsa State had a poverty rate of 23%. This means that nearly one-quarter of the population in the state was living below the poverty line.
In 2019, NBS used an annual consumption expenditure below N137,430 per year or N376.50 per day to determine the poverty rate.
In 2020 and 2021, the NBS did not publish any poverty rate data. But in the last quarter of 2022, NBS released its National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report, which measured poverty across four dimensions: health, education, living standards, and work and shocks.
From this new data, 89% of the estimated 2.5 population of Bayelsa State is considered to be living in multidimensional poverty, the second highest rate among the 36 states in the country and the FCT.
Number of Out-of-School Children
Over the years, the Nigerian government has taken different measures, embarked on campaigns, and collaborated with different stakeholders to tackle the issue of out-of-school children in Nigeria. In spite of these, the country still battles with the challenge of high number of out-of-school children.
The most recent data on the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria by NBS dates back to 2018. The NBS put the number of out-of-school children in the state at 10.19 million. Out of this figure, Bayelsa State had 53,079, with females accounting for 54% of the total number.
Among the six states in the South-South region, Bayelsa State has the lowest number of out-of-school children. However, the percentage of female children who are out of school is the second highest in the Niger Delta.
While the oil-rich state is said to have the Compulsory Primary and Secondary Education Law 2018 in place to help address the issue of out-of-school children, it appears that not much progress has been made.
Earlier this year, the Governor of the state disclosed that the number of out-of-school children now stands at 250,000, with girls accounting for 60% of the figure, according to the Minister of State for Education, Goodluck Nanah Opiah.
Another report published by The Guardian in October 2022 put the figure of out-of-school children in the state at 86,124.
Regardless of the specific number one decides to look at, the reality is that the number of out-of-school children in the state has risen significantly under the Diri administration from what it was in 2018.
Whoever emerges as the state’s next governor from the 16 candidates vying for the position will have to give attention to the issue of the high number of out-of-school children by developing or effectively implementing the existing laws and policies to improve access to quality education in the state as this is crucial to achieving goal 4 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Ease of Doing Business Ranking
A favorable business environment plays a vital role in attracting investments to a state. It is one of the main factors that investors take into account when selecting a location for their investments.
In this aspect, Bayelsa State’s ranking has dropped in performance. In 2021, the ease of doing business survey published by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) ranked Bayelsa State as the 10th state out of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in terms of ease of doing business with a score of 5.92 out of the 10 index score.
Among the six states in the South-South region, Bayelsa State is considered the second state with the most ease of doing business. The PEBEC used four thematic areas — Infrastructure and Security, Transparency and Access to Information, Regulatory Environment, and Workforce Readiness to assess the 36 states and FCT in 2021.
In the 2023 survey, the indicators increased to six. Namely: Infrastructure; Secure and Stable Environment; Transparency and Accessibility of Information; Regulatory Environment; Skills and Labour; and Economic Opportunity.
Bayelsa emerged in 24th place in the 2023 ranking with a score of 5.39, a drop from its ranking in the previous survey. Also, the state is no longer ranked as the second state in the South-South region with ease of doing business. It is now third, with Rivers State now taking its former position.
Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR)
With respect to this indicator, Bayelsa State has not fared well in recent times. In fact, the data shows that the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in the state has become worse than it was in 2018.
Under-five mortality is the probability of a child dying between birth and their fifth birthday.
In the NBS 2020 women and men report, it was noted that Bayelsa State had a U5MR of 31 deaths per 1,000 live births. This was the second lowest rate among the 36 states and FCT as of 2018.
With 31 deaths per 1,000 live births, Bayelsa State had a lower rate than the national average of 132 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2018.
While no new data has been released since then, the 2021 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) revealed that Bayelsa State now has a U5MR of 100 per 1,000 live births, indicating an increase from the rate in 2018.
The state’s new rate in the MICS report now places it as the state in the South-South region with the highest U5MR and the 13th highest among the 36 states and FCT.
The United Nations (UN), in one of its articles, identified preterm birth complications, birth asphyxia/trauma, pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria as the leading causes of death in children under 5 years. The international body noted that access to affordable health interventions, including universal health coverage for all children to access essential health services, can prevent under-five mortality rate.
Sadly, the percentage of children under the age of five who are covered by health insurance in the state is less than 2%. According to the 2021 Women and Men report, only 1.3% of children under the age of five are covered by health insurance in Bayelsa State.
