There is a loud pop followed by the crackle of electricity.
The line trips, followed by an eerie silence.
And then, blackout.
Soon after, a press release: “The Transmission Company of Nigeria wishes to inform the public that the national grid experienced a disturbance at approximately 11:29 am this morning, caused by a sudden rise in frequency…”
This familiar cycle continues as the national grid collapsed for the 10th time in 2024 on November 7. This persistent instability has become a defining feature of Nigeria’s power infrastructure, with further disruptions likely before the year ends.
The recurring incidence of grid collapse is attributed to ageing facilities, lack of maintenance, inadequate investment in the power sector and vandalisation of power facilities, leading to disruption of business activities and delays in healthcare services, as experienced in places like the University College Hospital, Ibadan.
The national power grid is a vast network of electrical transmission lines that link power stations to end-use customers across the nation and is designed to function within specific stability boundaries, including voltage (330kV ± 5.0%) and frequency (50Hz ± 0.5%). Any deviation from these stability ranges can result in decreased power quality and, in severe cases, cause widespread power outages ranging from a partial collapse of a section of the grid to a full system-wide blackout.
Over the past 15 years, Nigeria has grappled with a cycle of grid failures, peaking in 2010 when citizens endured a staggering 42 instances of being plunged into the abyss of darkness. National grid collapses rose in 2024, following a pattern of consistent fluctuations in previous years.
Whether it’s partial collapses, total blackouts, or fleeting system disturbances, the weight of the national grid’s failures has always landed squarely on the shoulders of the people. Left in the lurch, they must navigate a maze of darkness, adapting their lives to an unreliable power supply that darkens their homes and offices.
An analysis of the incidences of grid collapses across four successive administrations since 2011 shows that there is a pattern of increased grid collapses during the second year of successive administrations, except Buhari’s second term. Overall, each administration has faced its share of grid collapses, highlighting a systemic issue that must be tackled.
Nafisat Ali, the executive director of the Independent System Operator (ISO) department at TCN, stated in April 2024 that grid collapses in Nigeria result from shared failures across the entire power value chain, involving generation companies, transmission, and distribution entities.
She said “From generation companies, there is the inadequacy of gas supply, improper coordination of plants and gas pipelines and poor generation availability. Under the transmission value chain, there is a lack of operating/spinning reserve and voltage support scheme, lack of reliable SCADA facility, vandalism, tripping of critical infrastructure lines, transition line redundancy, and lack of reliable communication facility are the causes for grid collapse.
For the distribution companies (DisCos), there are weak distribution networks, load allocation violations, and lack of visibility on the DisCos network, among others, as the reasons for the unending collapse.”
Electricity supply in Nigeria goes through three major phases; Generation, Transmission, and Distribution. The first phase, generation, is where electricity is produced. This involves converting various energy sources, such as natural gas, hydro, or renewable sources, into electrical energy through power plants operated by generation companies (GenCos).
The second phase, transmission, involves transporting the generated electricity over long distances through the national grid. This phase, managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), ensures the transfer of high-voltage power to various regions across the country.
The third phase, distribution, is where electricity is delivered to end-users, including households, businesses, and industries. This phase is handled by distribution companies (DisCos), who step down the high-voltage power to levels suitable for consumer use.
The Nigerian power sector has undergone major reforms over the years. A significant initiative was the enactment of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act (EPSR Act) in 2005. The reform was necessitated by the lack of a commensurate increase in energy supply to meet the country’s growing economic and infrastructural development objective. This led to the decision to break up the defunct National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) into small, effective units.
By this EPSR Act, NEPA was unbundled into 18 companies: Six Generation Companies, One Transmission Company and Eleven Distribution Companies. All were issued Operation Licences. In November 2013, the federal government privatised all power generation and 11 distribution companies while retaining ownership of the transmission company. The move was aimed at enhancing efficiency within the power sector.
The GenCos generate power and supply it to the national grid managed by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), while the transmission company transmits the power from the grid to its substations, which is where it is delivered to DisCos at a lower voltage and then to homes.
Despite these reforms, the power supply in Nigeria remains unstable.
Glaring Gaps
What could be the challenge? Funding? Operational Inefficiency? Corruption?
The Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, has said that one of the major challenges facing the power sector is the need to replace outdated infrastructure and increase investment to enhance power efficiency. In November, the minister stated, “Achieving 24-hour power supply across Nigeria within the next five to ten years will require a minimum investment of $10 billion.”
An analysis of the expenditure in the power sector in the last 7 years shows the possibility of the sector being under-funded, and that could be due to many reasons.
Funmilayo is a Research Analyst at Dataphyte, where she utilises data to craft engaging narratives about government policies and programs and their impact on the public.