More than 2 million registered voters are expected to cast their ballots in the upcoming Ondo governorship elections, which will be held on November 16, 2024. An analysis of past trends in the state show an increase in voter turnout may occur.
This prediction is based on the fact that the 2024 gubernatorial election is an open contest, which attracts higher turnout in the state than when an incumbent is running for re-election.
The Ondo election is the second off-cycle gubernatorial election conducted this year after the Edo State election. In addition to these two states, Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa also held their off-cycle gubernatorial elections in 2023. Off-cycle elections occur outside the regular election cycle involving the presidential election.
The numbers in Ondo elections
As it stands, 2.05 million people have registered to vote in the elections, of which 1.03 million (50.36%) are male while 1.02 million voters (49.64%) are female. Of this amount, students, traders, farmers, and artisans make up over 70 percent of the total number of registered voters.
In previous elections, voter registration for the Ondo governorship elections has grown from 1.3 million voters in the 1999 election to 1.6 million and 1.8 million registered voters in 2016 and 2020, when the last elections were held.
Similarly, the voter turnout had an average of over 600,000 voters’ turnout during the electioneering exercise with the exception of the 2003 election, an outlier, seeing more than 900,000 voters participate in the election.
Meanwhile, Dataphyte’s findings showed that the factor of an incumbent governor participating in the governorship race, seeking re-election for a second term, influenced the turnout of voters in the election over the years.
For example, in 2003, when a new government ousted the incumbent governor, Adebayo Adefarati, voter turnout reached its highest at 63%. However, participation declined when the incumbent governor, Olusegun Agagu, ran for re-election in 2007.
In 2008, Agagu was removed from office by the courts, which reinstated his rival, Olusegun Mimiko, as governor. Voter turnout dropped again in 2010 when Mimiko was re-elected for a second term. This trend was observed once more during Rotimi Akeredolu’s re-election campaign for a second term in 2020.
Our prediction
The average voter turnout in previous off-cycle elections in Kogi, Imo, Bayelsa, and Edo has been around 30%. Despite a combined voter registration of over 8 million people across these four states, only 2.4 million voters participated in the elections.
This suggests that a significant portion of registered voters did not participate in the elections, resulting in a relatively low voter turnout despite a large number of people being eligible to vote.
While this might play out in the Ondo elections, Dataphyte believes that the seasonal trend in voter turnout during Ondo’s election might increase voter participation much higher than 32 percent recorded in the 2020 election.
However, several reports suggest that the political influence of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may also play a significant role in shaping the election results. One such factor is the internal conflicts within the state’s political parties, which led to a key candidate defecting from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), weakening its position in the race.
There are also concerns about electoral corruption like vote buying, which may mobilize voters’ turnout during the electioneering exercises. Just 48 hours before the governorship election, three gubernatorial candidates were reported to have withdrawn from the race to endorse the APC’s candidate.
In conclusion, the Ondo state election is likely to be influenced by a combination of political dynamics as voter engagement, party strategies, and political maneuvering will be crucial in determining the final result.
