Hope Uzodinma became the Imo State governor via an appelate court in 2020. This time he attempts to win at the courts of the people, through the ballot. One good term deserves another. But how good was Mr Uzodinma’s first term in office?
On March 11, 2019, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Emeka Ihedioha, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who contested in the 2019 Imo governorship election, as the winner of the highly contested poll.
However, following a court ruling in 2020 that many, including the former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Olisa Agbakoba, SAN, described as a controversial judgment, Hope Uzodinma, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) who came fourth in the race, was declared the legitimate winner of the election by the Supreme Court.
While this judgment continues to be a subject of debate among legal and non-legal practitioners and is frequently referenced as one of the most controversial rulings delivered by the courts in recent times, this article shall focus on the performance of Hope Uzodinma, who has managed the affairs of Imo State and is also contesting for a second term in office.
Specifically, indicators such as GDP, internal revenues, the unemployment rate, and poverty will be examined, among others. These indicators broadly cover economic performance and social policy.
GDP, IGR & Fiscal Sustainability
GDP
First, there is the need to understand the size of the economy that Hope Uzodinma manages. That begins with the size of Imo State’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
GDP is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. GDP calculates all the economic activities carried out within a year in an area. In this case, it concerns the GDP of Imo State.
As noted by Dataphyte in a previous report, GDP gives information about the size of the region’s economy and how that economy is performing.
For many states in Nigeria, a time series data on their GDP is scarcely available. As such, we may be unable to assess improvement or decline in Hope Uzodinma’s performance across the years.
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Nevertheless, the 2022 State of States report released by BudgIT last year revealed that Imo State has an estimated GDP of N7.68 trillion, making it the 4th out of the 36 states in the country with the largest GDP. Among its peers in the South-East region, Imo State has the highest GDP, followed by Anambra State with N5.14 trillion.
On a per capita basis, Imo State has a GDP of N1.4 million, ranking as the fourth state in Nigeria with the highest GDP per capita, only below Lagos, Bayelsa, and Akwa-Ibom States.
IGR
Now to measure Hope Uzodinma’s performance, a vital indicator, and perhaps the most crucial for many citizens, is the state’s internal revenue. The internal revenue reflects the fiscal health and economic viability of the state.
Internal revenues are generated by states through various means, including the collection of Pay-As-You-Earn Tax (PAYE), Direct Assessment, Road Taxes, and revenues from Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs).
In 2020, upon assuming office as the state’s governor, Hope Uzodinma declared his administration’s intention to increase the state’s monthly internally generated revenue (IGR) to N5 billion in the coming years, up from the N600 million he claimed the state was generating monthly before he assumed power.
A review of the state’s IGR showed that the state is yet to hit the N5 billion monthly IGR target the Hope Uzodinma administration promised in 2020. However, the state has seen significant growth in its IGR.
According to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, Imo State generated a total IGR of N6.18 billion in 2019. Despite the coronavirus pandemic’s impact, which affected many states’ revenue, Imo State witnessed a 24% increase in its IGR the following year.
A further increase was recorded in 2021, with IGR hitting N12.74 billion. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, the state had generated N15.57 billion as internal revenue, an increase over the previous year.
It is worth noting that, although the state saw a growth in its internal revenue, it never hit the N5 billion monthly target the governor promised. The highest monthly revenue the state has generated so far under Hope Uzodinma was N1.73 billion in 2021.
While various factors may have contributed to the growth in the state’s IGR during the period under review, the signing of the amendment to the Imo State Revenue Administration Law 2020 could be seen as a contributory factor.
Uzodinma explained that the amendment of the law was part of the effort of the state to close leakages and improve the state’s revenue. “The law will improve the revenue base of the state by closing revenue leakages as a result of engagement of multiple consultants who siphon the state treasury,” the Governor said.
Although the state’s IGR growth is commendable, data indicates that the state remains highly reliant on statutory allocations from the federal government. Therefore, further efforts may be required to reduce this dependence and enhance the state’s revenue generation.
In the period under review, Imo State received N235 billion as FAAC allocation, while N42.17 was generated as IGR. So, cumulatively, the state had a total revenue (IGR plus FAAC) of N277 in the period under review. Of this total revenue, FAAC disbursement made up 85%, while IGR accounted for only 15%, indicating high dependence on statutory allocation from the government for survival.
BudgIT noted in its 2022 State of States report that if the state continues on this path of high reliance on FAAC allocation and does not significantly revamp its IGR, it will be treading on thin ice.
Fiscal Sustainability
Over the past four years, BudgIT evaluated the fiscal sustainability of all 36 states in Nigeria, employing four key indices. These indices include a state’s ability to cover its operating costs solely with its IGR, meet all operating expenses and loan repayment obligations without resorting to borrowing, its debt sustainability, and prioritisation of capital over recurrent expenditures.
A review of Imo State’s fiscal performance from 2019 to 2022 reveals a consistent decline.
In 2019, based on the aforementioned indices, Imo State emerged 9th out of the 36 states in the fiscal performance ranking. Among its counterparts in the South-East region, the state ranked second, exhibiting commendable fiscal sustainability.
However, the subsequent year witnessed a drop in the state’s fiscal performance to 10th place. The rankings for 2019 and 2020 represent the state’s best performances thus far. In 2021, Imo State dropped to the 20th position, experiencing a significant decline from its previous rankings.
The state didn’t show any improvement in its 2022 ranking either. The state emerged in the 26th place in the 2022 national fiscal performance ranking, holding the record as the worst-performing South-Eastern state regarding fiscal sustainability.
Considering this trend data, it can be said that Imo State’s fiscal sustainability worsened under the administration of Hope Uzodinma.
The state’s poor performance in recent times may not be unconnected to its voracious appetite for borrowings, particularly considering that one of the indices used to evaluate the state’s fiscal performance is its debt profile.
By the end of 2020, during Hope Uzodinma’s first year in office, Imo State had a domestic debt of N150 billion. This amount increased to N205 billion in 2021 and decreased slightly to 204 billion. Nonetheless, the debt is still 36% higher than in 2020 when this administration resumed office. With the N204 billion domestic debt, Imo State ranks as the 6th state with the most domestic debt in the country.
On its external debt, there has been a significant reduction from what it was in 2020.
Unemployment rate
At various times, Hope Uzodinma expressed his commitment to creating job opportunities for the people of Imo State. He included this promise in his 2019 manifesto and reiterated it after assuming office in 2020. In 2020, he stated that his administration aimed to generate 500,000 jobs within three years.
The most recent available data from NBS indicates that, as of Q4 2020, the unemployment rate in the state stood at 57%. In 2018, the state’s unemployment rate was only 28%. That is, Hope Uzodinma’s government increased unemployment by an extra 39% points.
With a 57% unemployment rate, Imo State currently holds the highest unemployment rate in the country. This implies that out of every 10 working-age persons living in the state, at least 5 are unemployed.
It is important to note that “unemployment” refers to individuals within the labour force who were completely inactive, that is, those who did not work at all and those who worked less than 20 hours per week.
Poverty rate
With high unemployment rates, poverty is prevalent across the country. And Imo State is no exception. The Nigerian government, at both the federal and sub-national levels, pledged to address this pressing issue, but little progress has been made so far.
The Imo State government too struggles in this regard.
According to the 2019 poverty data, Imo State had a poverty headcount of 29% and ranked as the 15th state in Nigeria with the lowest poverty rate. This means that 29% of the population of the state was living below the poverty line. This was before Hope Uzodinma assumed the seat of power in the state.
Then, the NBS used an actual per capita expenditure of N137,430 per year (or N376.50 per day) to measure Nigeria’s poverty rate.
There were no published poverty rate figures for the years 2020 and 2021. However, in 2022, the NBS released the National Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report, which assessed poverty across four dimensions: health, education, living standards, and work and shocks.
According to this report, 41% of Imo State’s population is classified as living in multidimensional poverty when considering these four dimensions with 15 indicators.
While the indicators used differ from those in the 2019 survey, still, among the five states in the South-East region, Imo ranks third in terms of the proportion of its population suffering from multidimensional poverty, worse than Abia and Anambra States.
Number of Out-of-School Children
In 2018, a total of 275,800 children in Imo State lacked access to education, making it the state with the highest number of out-of-school children in the South-East region. Among them, 243,433 were male, while 32,457 were female.
Since then, no data on out-of-school children has been published by NBS, thus, the current figure may not be the true reflection of the situation in the state currently, especially as the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) disclosed recently that the number of out-of-school children in Nigeria has risen to 20 million.
Ease of Doing Business Ranking
One of the key considerations for investors worldwide when selecting an investment destination is the business environment. The business climate plays a vital role in attracting both local and international investments to a country or state.
In this regard, Imo fares relatively well among the 36 states and its peers in the South-East. Although there is no trended data to fully understand the state of the business environment in Imo State before Hope Uzodinma assumed office and how he performed, the subnational data on the ease of doing business published by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) in 2021, ranked Imo State as the 11th state out of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in terms of ease of doing business.
The state received a score of 5.88 out of a total index score of 10, making it the third most favorable state in the South-East region in terms of the business climate.
However, in the 2023 report, the state dropped from its 11th position in terms of ease of doing business to 13th place.
The 2023 assessment by PEBEC covered six thematic areas: Infrastructure; Secure and Stable Environment; Transparency and Accessibility of Information; Regulatory Environment; Skills and Labour; and Economic Opportunity.
It is crucial for whoever emerges as the governor of the state in the November 11 contest to prioritise these six thematic areas and devise a clear plan to improve them in order to enhance the ease of doing business in the state for the little above 2,000 small and medium enterprises in the state.
Under-5 Mortality Rate
Our last indicator is the under-5 mortality rate in Imo state. Under-five mortality refers to the probability of a child dying between birth and their fifth birthday. In 2018, Nigeria had an under-5 mortality rate of 132 deaths per 1,000 live births, indicating that 132 out of every 1,000 children born would die before age 5.
According to data from the NBS, Imo State had an under-5 mortality rate of 81 deaths per 1,000 live births, the second highest under-5 mortality rate in the South-East region.
While this rate was lower than the national average, it was still higher than the average of 62 deaths per 1,000 live births for the 13 Lower-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
However, the recent Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey released in 2022 indicates that the state has made some progress in reducing under-5 mortality, with the rate estimated at 56 deaths per 1,000 live births. This now ranks the state as the third state with the highest under-5 mortality rate, no longer holding the second position it had in 2018.
While this improvement is noteworthy, it is important to emphasize that the state is still far from achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of 20 deaths per 1,000 live births. Thus, there is a need to develop and implement additional policies and strategies to reduce under-5 mortality further and work towards achieving this goal.
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