As of this writing, the website of Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics has been offline since December 18, 2024, 26 days ago. On its Twitter handle, @nbs_nigeria said: “This is to inform the public that the NBS Website has been hacked and we are working to recover it. Please disregard any message or report posted until the website is fully restored. Thank you.”
Some have connected the disappearance of the NBS website to a damning report on ransoms paid to kidnappers which was released on December 17th, 2024. The report showed Nigerians paid kidnappers the sum of ₦2 trillion in ransoms between May 2023 and June 2024. Apparently embarrassed by the report, the Department of State Services (DSS) invited the Statistician-General, Adeniran Adeyemi, for questioning on December 19th, the day after the website went down. Nary a peep has been heard from the NBS since.
The NBS made remarkable progress as a credible and responsive statistical organisation with the appointment of Dr Yemi Kale in 2011 by Goodluck Jonathan. His two terms as Statistician-General increased the profile of the NBS and made it the go-to place for statistics about Nigeria. This had real benefits for Nigeria. Rebasing the country’s GDP in 2014 showed the country was Africa’s largest economy, a fact that made it into countless slide decks and attracted funding for businesses in Nigeria.
Apart from that big win, various other wins like the timely release of key macroeconomic data on inflation, GDP, unemployment and many others in machine readable format were key in establishing the NBS as a credible organisation.
It is now nearly 14 years since the agency was revitalised by Dr Kale’s appointment. Ahead of a big month for the NBS, let us look at how it compares to other national statistical agencies globally.
How the NBS fares against its peers
The World Bank has its Statistical Performance Indicators which capture the performance of statistical bodies in 186 countries. They are measured on five broad criteria:
Data Use: Statistics have value only if they are used. A successful statistical system produces data that are used widely and frequently.
Data Services: This refers to a range of services that connects data users to producers and facilitate dialogues between them, thus building trust and a sense of value.
Data Products: The dialogues between users and producers drive the design and range of statistical products and their accuracy, timeliness, frequency, comparability, and levels of disaggregation. The products signal whether countries are able to produce indicators related to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
Data Sources: To create useful products, the statistical system needs to draw on sources inside and outside the government. Data collection thus goes beyond the typical censuses and surveys to include administrative and geospatial data as well as data generated by private firms and citizens.
Data Infrastructure: A mature statistical system has well-developed hard infrastructure (legislation, governance, standards) and soft infrastructure (skills, partnerships) as well as the financial resources to deliver useful—and widely used—data products and services.
In its most recent assessment from 2023, Nigeria ranks 131st out of 187 countries for which full data is available, with an overall score of 60.9. In Africa, the NBS ranks 30th of 54 countries. Nigeria is just above the average score of 60.38 in Sub-Saharan Africa, but below the average score of lower-middle income countries, which is 63.5.

The SPI began collecting data in 2016, and an improvement in Nigeria’s score can be seen from 56.1 in 2016 to 61.7 in 2021, before a decline in 2022 and then a rebound to 60.9 in 2023.

A close look at the subcategories shows that the NBS does most poorly in the area of data sources, followed by data infrastructure. As noted above, data sources include administrative, geospatial as well as census data. Neither of the three are in abundance in Nigeria. For example, the last census was conducted in 2006 and there is no civil registration system in the country to track births and deaths. Another missing aspect in the period was a business census and business survey. Also, the country has no score at all for administrative data in the data sources category.

Further analysis of the World Bank’s scores shows that the NBS lags behind regarding data infrastructure. Areas that are lacking include a CPI base year (for Nigeria this is 2009, but most countries update it every 5 years), a national accounts base year, compilation of government finance statistics and central government accounting status. Some of these issues will be addressed by the CPI rebase.
Where the NBS does best concerns how widely and frequently its data is used, and its data services, which measures how often data is produced concerning the 17 SDGs. Right now, the only consistent missing angle has to do with statistics around climate action.
An important year for the NBS
The shutdown of its website and interrogation of the Statistician-General by the State Security Service comes in a big year for the NBS, as it will be rebasing Nigeria’s GDP and updating the CPI calculations this year. The current base year for GDP is 2010, while for the CPI, it is 2009. Both measures are due for an update. The result is expected to be a credible calculation that reflects the current structure of the Nigerian economy and the various inflationary pressures faced daily by Nigerians.
The most controversial aspect of the GDP rebasing exercise is that activities like commercial sex work and smuggling will be included. While some might object on moral grounds, such transactions represent real economic activity between willing buyers and sellers, distinct from activities like theft. In fact, the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008), which represents best practices in the measurement of national output, includes these forms of activity in measuring overall economic activity.
This update to the calculation of Nigeria’s economy will probably lead to a significant increase in the GDP and an adjustment to metrics that rely on GDP—some for the better, and some for the worse.
The need for accurate data
The Tinubu administration has made plenty of song and dance about attracting foreign investment. It has gone to various fora in Asia, the Middle East and Europe in order to further this goal. The success so far has been modest at best, with Shell announcing a Final Investment Decision of $5 billion in the Bonga North oil field, and a Saudi firm SALIC buying a $1.2 billion stake in Olam.
To make investment decisions, capital allocators rely on accurate data. Data helps with everything from market sizing to the cost of market entry and regulatory compliance. If the country’s statistical agency has been compromised and cannot be counted on to produce accurate data, it makes the country less investment-ready.
On the government side, accurate data ensures it has the full picture of the social and economic problems in the country. Accurate data will lead to accurate diagnoses of those problems, so that scarce resources can be directed to the highest priority areas.
For the sake of emphasis, the only loyalty the NBS should have is to represent facts in the most accurate way possible, rather than in the aid of any arm of government, no matter how powerful. In order to resolve the country’s myriad challenges, the breadth and depth of those challenges should be known, so that if those indices are getting better or worse, it will be clear.
Arresting the slide
As we begin a new year, it is important to point out that all attempts to intimidate Nigeria’s statistical agency (or any other institutions) under any guise are dangerous and go against national development, especially in such a critical time as this for the country facing multiple challenges.
Right now, the NBS is engaging stakeholders about the updates to GDP and inflation, while its website is not accessible to the public. It is an irony that should be lost on no one. The last thing Nigeria needs is a climate of fear operating in an important arm of government that is supposed to be free from political pressure and expediency.
Only by shining a light on all aspects of Nigeria’s social and economic conditions can relevant solutions to various problems be found. People talk all the time about locally relevant solutions to local problems, but none of those solutions can be found without the right data.
One good New Year resolution this administration can make is to give the NBS all it needs to be a credible statistical organisation that is free from interference from both politicians and the security establishment.
It will do Nigeria a world of good.