Last week, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released a report that warned of the looming basket of troubles – or ‘Wahala’, a la Nigerian street lingo – hanging in the corner for Nigeria and other parts of the world. Since the nation’s leadership is at the moment engulfed in a circus show of comedic presidential declarations, it would be apposite to amplify the concerns for ordinary Nigerians.
The agency sounded a cautionary note on the danger of food insecurity based on a major revelation from an annual report launched by the Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC) – an international alliance of the United Nations, the European Union, governmental and non-governmental agencies working to tackle food crises together.
Around 193 million people in 53 countries or territories experienced acute food insecurity at crisis or worse levels (IPC/CH Phase 3-5) in 2021, it said, and this represents an increase of nearly 40 million people compared with the already record numbers of 2020. Of these, over half a million people (570,000) in Ethiopia, southern Madagascar, South Sudan and Yemen were classified in the most severe phase of acute food insecurity catastrophe (Phase 5) and required urgent action to avert widespread collapse of livelihoods, starvation and death. Of the 39 countries mentioned, the number of people facing crisis or worse nearly doubled between 2016 and 2021, with unabated rises each year since 2018.
FAO said the number of people facing acute food insecurity and requiring urgent life-saving food assistance and livelihood support continues to grow at an alarming rate, making it more urgent than ever to tackle the root causes of food crises rather than just responding after they occur.
A Trouble Forewarned
The GNAFC declaration, to be sure, isn’t coming as a surprise. But since issues are often left unaddressed until they metamorphose into a full-blown crisis, it’s unsurprising that the issue isn’t dominating headlines or national discussions in Nigeria. Yet.
In October 2021, the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis, also called the Cadre Harmonise, had long revealed that 12.1 million Nigerians would have been thrown into a food crisis before the end of 2021.
The Cadre Harmonise, conducted in 20 States and the Federal Capital Territory in Abuja, further indicated that about 19 percent of affected households are in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe States. The premise, of course, was the raging conflict in the NorthEast region of the country coupled with adverse economic effect and impact resulting from the devastating COVID-19 pandemic, which unleashed hunger in Nigeria.
Now, guess what?
When the food inflation figures were released for December 2021, predictably, the Cadre Harmonise projection was near-accurate as many Nigerians had been thrown into a food crisis.
According to details of the Consumer Price Index data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for December 2021, Food inflation, which accounts for all volatile agricultural produce, increased by 0.16% points to 17.37% compared to 17.21% recorded in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 2.19% in December 2021, up by 1.12% points from 1.07% recorded in November 2021.
The NBS said at the time that the rise in the food sub-index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food product, Meat, Fish, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, soft drinks and fruit.
In effect, with the skyrocketed prices floating far above the reach of Nigerians, many were thrown into a food crisis and biting hunger.
Wahala ‘Pro Max’!
With the scary nature of the 2021 realities, one would have thought that the worst had been recorded. But the signs are becoming more ominous. As Nigerians would probably have put it, it’s a matter of looming trouble in a bigger, scarier dimension—a.k.a “Wahala Pro Max.”
For instance, in November 2021, FAO had alerted that Nigeria’s food crisis might hit over 16.9 million Nigerians in 2022, as consumption is expected to worsen in the face of reduction in household, market stocks and rise in prices.
Later in March 2022, the organisation said about 19.4 million people will face food insecurity across Nigeria between June and August 2022, adding that 21 states and FCT would be the worst hit, including 416,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).
That’s in addition to its estimate that 14.4 million people including 385,000 IDPs are ALREADY in a food crisis till May 2022.
Population Boom, Developmental Doom?
As in many developing economies, central to Nigeria’s inability to design a developmental and growth pathway is the question of population. Population, by default, could be a double-edged sword stifling growth in terms of limited resources or encouraging productivity in terms of cheap labour. With regards to food sufficiency, analysts opine that population boom could spell doom if it remained uncontrolled.
With over 180 million estimated people, Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa and the seventh largest in the world. The annual growth rate of the population is approximately 2.7 per cent, and more than half the population are said to be under 30 years of age, according to estimated counts.
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), Nigeria is the 10th largest producer of crude oil in the world and achieved lower-middle-income status in 2014. However, bloody conflict in the nation’s Northeast region has displaced over 2 million people and left another 8.7 million food insecure in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states.
Across the West African sub-region, people in food crises increased from 11 million recorded in 2018 to 12 million in 2019. With about 5 million people, Nigeria has the highest number of people in crisis in the 15 countries in the sub-region, according to WFP records.
8.7 million people are food insecure in northeast Nigeria, while 60% of people nationwide live below the poverty line, data from WFP shows. In the face of these realities, population boom has been a clog in the wheel of progress and food sustainability.
In 2019 alone, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that Nigeria had about 50 per cent of West Africa’s food insecure population.
The situation has been worsened by decade-long war against terrorism in the agrarian part of North east, farmer-herder clashes in North central, and the debilitating impact of the shrinking Lake Chad on economic and agricultural activities.
In November 2020, gunmen on motorbikes stormed the village of Koshobe in Borno, killing at least 110 people on a rice farm, according to a Washington Post report.
A report by the Global Centre for Responsibility to Protect says that between 2018 and 2020, the emergence and expansion of armed banditry in the agrarian north-west part of Nigeria resulted in the killing of at least 4,900 people.
Without doubt, the global pandemic—and its devastating impact—has exacerbated an already complicated situation.
Empty Stomachs; Angry Citizens
As a combination of insecurity and rising domestic prices take its toll on Nigerians, many who have managed to survive have been driven into melancholy, depression and other consequences of food crisis and acute poverty.
Food, in many Nigerian homes and cultures, remains a major source of delight and general happiness. But the ripple effects of the food crisis are possibly being felt in the state of mind and general well-being of the average Nigerian already. If put in the context of other existential socio-economic crises, the results are evident in the crime rate and general atmosphere of gloom nationwide.
In the latest United Nations-sponsored 2022 World Happiness Report, Nigeria was ranked the 118th happiest place in the world, 2 spots lower than its position in 2021, indicating the country’s declining perception on key indicators. Some years ago, the World Happiness Report (WHR), which ranks 155 countries by their happiness, ranked Nigerians as the 6th happiest people in the world. Back in 2011, in a 53-country Gallup poll, Nigerians were rated at 70 points for optimism – making them the happiest people in the world. In contrast, in the same 2011 poll, Britain recorded a pessimistic -44 points.
But things have since ‘changed’ for the worse.
In 2018, a National Multidimensional Poverty Index report put together by the Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network—in collaboration with the NBS and UNDP—showed that the share of multidimensionally poor people at the national level in Nigeria was 54% with the average intensity of deprivation standing at 42%. The situation has since degenerated, with a World Bank report noting that the number of poor persons in Nigeria will rise to 95.1 million in 2022.
Denialism as Policy Response
Despite the cries and alarms raised on the food crisis and possible social consequences from different bodies around the world, policy response in Nigeria has been a combination of denialism and practised indifference.
In 2019, when confronted with details of and possible policy response to the poverty and hunger plaguing Nigerians, then Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Sabo Nanono, said Nigeria was producing enough to feed itself and there was no hunger in the land. He went ahead to provide a most ridiculous justification for poor nutritional culture, noting that N30 (0.072USD) can provide a “decent” meal for the average Nigerian.
“Food in Nigeria is fairly cheap compared to other countries. In Kano, for instance, you can eat N30 worth of food and be satisfied. So, we should be thankful that we can feed ourselves and we have relatively cheap food in this country,” Nanono said.
Since he made that declaration in 2019, Nigerians have sunk into deeper poverty and the food crisis has since worsened. What hasn’t changed is the policy response from the government.
As Nigerians prepare for 2023 elections, none of the leading presidential aspirants has marshalled a decent point on how the food crisis would be resolved. Rather, the nation has been treated to a most farcical spectacle of obscene exhibition of questionable wealth.
Yet, in the midst of the official indifference to a most pressing problem, as global bodies continue to warn against a looming danger, more Nigerians are becoming hungrier and angrier as the clock ticks.
At this rate, it does appear that the “policy response” to the food crisis from Nigeria’s ruling elite is their perennial plan to feed their supporters with a N500 meal at campaign rallies. Let’s see how far that can go in averting this looming food crisis, mass hunger, bottled up anger, and attendant full-scale Wahala.