Following the disclosure by the Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC) that Nigeria will conduct her national census this year, Dataphyte predicts that, all things being equal with figures from the last census and growth estimations, the country’s population will be 234.33 million people or higher.
The hope is that the national population and housing census scheduled to commence in March this year, will not only harmonize the different estimations about the country’s population but also provide the government with accurate figures for the purpose of development planning and resource allocation.
Nigeria’s census history could be classified into pre-independence (colonial era) and post-independence era.
With focus on the post-independence era, the country conducted her first census which covered the whole country in 1962. However, the results were rejected by the regions on the ground that it was highly politicized.
After this, two other censuses were conducted in 1963 and 1973 but were also hotly disputed on different grounds.
In 1991, the country established the National Population Commission (NPC) under Decree 23 of 1989 and conducted a census which was at that time regarded as the most scientific and acceptable. The 1991 census placed Nigeria’s population at 89 million.
Fifteen years later, in 2006, Nigeria conducted a population and housing census and the outcome revealed that the country had a population of 140 million people.
In both censuses (1991 and 2006), Kano and Lagos states had the highest population and the Federal Capital Territory the lowest.
With the United Nations’ 10 years interval recommendation for a census enumeration, Nigeria was due for another census in 2016. However, due to lack of funds, no census was conducted in that and since, leaving the country to use the 2006 census figure and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) annual growth rate of 3.2% for its population projection.
Using the 3.2% annual population growth, the country’s population in 2021 was estimated at 226.95 million.
Therefore, applying the same 3.2% population annual growth rate of the NBS, which in fact the Nigerian government has relied on to make plans in the last 15 years, the country’s population figure from the census that will be conducted in March is predicted to be 234.33 million or higher.
It must be noted that census, especially in Nigeria is often muddied with the politics of population. This census, due for over 5 years, happening in the lead up to a general election may arouse old sentiments and a distrust of the process, it is hoped that the National Population Commission will abide by the principles of transparency and accountability in the execution of this census to allay fears and doubts.