Acceleration, deceleration, increases, and decreases are measures of change and they provide useful insights for projections and analysis.
When these changes are linear, regular, or proportionately sinusoidal, either positive or negative, they make it easy to project with reasonable precision and accuracy.
In a situation of distress, declines after peaks signal hope and a possible return to normalcy. However, when peaks follow declines and new peaks arise in very unpredictable manners, there is a suggestion of chaos, further chaos, and solely more chaos!
With reference to the COVID 19 figures, positive changes mean more than an end to the extremely burdensome lockdown as well as a halt to the series of human and material losses from the pandemic. Moreso extends to beckon hope in the social and economic fabrics of Nigeria’s national life.
Already, the pandemic, as well as the associated containment measures, have resulted in unprecedented economic and social distresses in the country. Thus, the hope of a sooner end of the pandemic appears to bear semblance with the thought of home to a brave soldier after a decade of persistent crossfire in unfriendly enemy terrain.
Currently, Nigeria is in its 17th week of the pandemic. Since the report of the index case on 28th February, measures and actions have been initiated and implemented to contain the spread of the virus. However, the current figures pose considerable difficulty in assessing the effectiveness of the measures.
For instance, in the FCT, Ogun and Lagos where a quite early lead in the number of cases was reported, the number of confirmed cases in the last 20 days is in fact over three times the number in the first 33 days of the pandemic. This alone raises questions on the effectiveness of the lockdown that fully took effect on the 30th of March, the 31st day of the pandemic and has since been operational. In addition, the country has been recording increasing daily cases with spikes which are alarming and worrisome.
The gradual spread of the virus across the country also pose worrisome dimensions. While only 12 states where affected as at 31st March, the novel coronavirus has found it way to 13 additional states. This means that over 67 per cent of Nigerian states are affected. In fact, the astronomical growth in cases (60) in Kano State since the index case was first reported on April 11, merely about 10 days ago is more alarming.
Particularly, the trend in Kano suggests a very gloomy outlook that may even defile possible mitigation measures.
As with an overburdened country, the unpredictable COVID 19 growth trend requires a multi-dimensional analysis for a broader reflection on the situation and perhaps, a very objective assessment.
Easily, the figures show that pandemic does not have a consistent growth pattern. Also, the figures indicate inconsistent increases and decreases that make projection a little uneasy. However, the figures show an expanding scale of the virus which in turn implies an expanded national outlook.
While establishing causality is extremely difficult, particularly amidst a crisis, Nigeria’s COVID 19 figures and the rapidly expanding scope is most likely driven by some imaginable dynamics.
For example, an expanded scale of testing may imply an increase in the number of cases. While only about 262 persons were tested as of 27th March and only 76 cases were confirmed, over 7,100 persons had been tested as of 19th April with 627 confirmed cases.
Also, decentralization of testing centres in Lagos state could have resulted in the spike (70 new cases) that was recorded on the 19th of April. A spatial geo-referencing of cases from NCDC could have helped to co-relate the increasing growth in COVID 19 cases with the extent compliance to lockdown measures as well as the different reports of civil unrest that have emerged within this lockdown period.
Conversely, even though the figures for the confirmed cases are of an unpredictable pattern, they clearly explain the possible risk, the need for more robust measures as well as the essentiality of a collective fight against the pandemic.
The figures also provide insight into the more effective procedure for case detection. For example, to ascertain the true state of the pandemic, there is a need for an increased number of testing in the country. Decentralization of testing centres may also increase the effectiveness.
In addition, the figures provide an insight into the national COVID-19 outlook – with 665 cases from less than 10,000 tests, what is the possible number in the country with about 200 million people?
Perhaps the most problematic dilemma raised by these figures bothers on the effectiveness of the lockdown. Without the lockdown, would the figures have been more or much more?