When everyone is fleeing their fatherland for a fairer farther land, many more begin to fly in. For the first time since 2017, the number of passengers who arrived at Nigeria’s international airports surpassed the number of departures last year.
In 2021, One million, One hundred and Nine Thousand, Six hundred and Twenty-one passengers (1,109,621) arrived the country, while One million, One hundred and Nine Thousand, Five hundred and Twenty-Five (1,109,525) passengers departed.
Two things could be responsible for this. Many of the people who are travelling out are also returning, or more foreign citizens are relocating to Nigeria to replace citizens who are relocating abroad.
Why are people turning or returning to Nigeria?
Despite the reckless steering of the ship of state, some folks seem to understand the vast blessings and huge potential this country offers now and in the future. In other words, they jasi.
Since Russia reminded the world through Ukraine that third-world countries do not hold a monopoly of darkness and distress and dystopia, and doom, many people have begun to have a more objective view of the developed world.
Besides, the greater impact of the pandemic and the decline in Russia’s Oil Supply to Europe on high-income countries than on low-income countries reveal the fact that the so-called developed countries are secretly dependent countries.
Facts about Present Figures
Besides the poor and vulnerable who are left without a voice or a choice on whether to leave or stay in the country, several middle-class Nigerians do not feel any urgency to japa.
Armed with a global view, they see Nigeria as a place in the global village with its peculiar problems and promise, like everywhere else. Their resolve to stay in fatherland rather than leave for a farther land emanates from one or more of the following:
- pragmatism about the cost and benefit of leaving and staying.
- sheer pessimism about the often untold vicissitudes of life in foreign lands, or
- a sense of patriotism and mission for country.
Personal income matters
On the pragmatic point, the moment an adult earns more than N465,000 monthly income in Nigeria, she is not affected by those adverse data on Nigeria’s human capital development!
In fact, she can afford the basic amenities that the average person in high-income countries like the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand afford, World Bank data shows.
| Many of the people who flee (japa) already earn more than the average wage in the high-income Countries they are leaving for | |||
| Classification of Countries by Income | Gross National Income (GNI per capita) ($) | Annual Income (midpoint) ($) | Average Monthly Income in Naira ($1 = N438.35) |
| Low income countries | < 1,046 | 1,045 | <N38,210 |
| Lower middle-income countries | 1,046 – 4,095 | 2,571 | N93,898 (38,210 -149,587) |
| Upper middle-income countries | 4,096 – 12,695 | 8,396 | N306,681 (N149,623 – N463,738) |
| High income countries | > 12,695 | 12,695 | >N463,738 |
| Source: World Bank | Analysis: Dataphyte Research |
Equally, a socially responsible and financially responsive couple that each earns over N465,000 can afford a decent education and health needs of a family of 5.
There is a need to remember that the depressing figures of Nigeria’s stunted human capital development actually describe the lot of about 45% of the population (95 million out of 211.4 million Nigerians), who receive a monthly income of less than N38,173. Going by Nigeria’s poverty line as of 2019, the income ceiling over the poor is lower, at N11,450.
The rest of the population, who receive a monthly income between N94,000 and N307,000, also encounter some of these maladies of the Nigerian economic situation.
However, a Nigerian at home that earns above Four hundred and Sixty Thousand Naira (N463,738) monthly already earns what the average person in high-income countries earns. She may consider it better to live in Nigeria and enjoy a cheaper cost of living.
This Nigerian could afford the nutritional, educational, health, and adult survival expectations in high-income countries.
Among this high-income group (over N463,738 earnings per month), human capital development index (HCI) is 71%. And among the Upper middle income group in Nigeria (N149,623 – N463,738), the index is 56%.
The 36% average HCI score for all the income groups in the country for the year 2020 shows that “a child born in Nigeria just before the year 2020 will be 36% as productive when she grows up as she could have been if she enjoyed complete education and full health. (See the first part of this series for the expected score of your own income level for the 5 sub-indices on health, education and adult survival outcomes).
Location in Nigeria also matters
Again, just as one’s location in the world contributes to the human capital outcomes of that child or adult, one’s location in Nigeria also affects the income, and in turn, the human development outcomes.
For instance, as of 2020, there was 85% chances of a 15 year old child surviving till age 60 all over the world. However, this average score does not define the reality in every region of the world.
Those in North America, Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and Pacific, Middle East & North Africa, and Latin America & Caribbean all have better adult survival rate than the world average.
Likewise, Urban areas in Nigeria offer more social amenities, greater economic possibilities and income than the rural areas, and in turn, better health, education, and survival outcomes.
Faith in Possible Figures
To see hope in Nigeria, there is a need to understand the figures that economists present.