Again, to remember Rwanda is to reflect on how the country’s fragile socio-political system made it susceptible to a full-blown humanitarian crisis as the 1994 genocide.
As with Rwanda and its African peers, the cracks in their social systems and weak(ened) political institutions have resulted in factionalised elites and group grievance and the attendant rise of ethnic militias, sectarian violence, and other terrorism threats.
Howbeit, Rwanda’s post-genocide responses show us how purposeful leadership can reduce social tensions and reinforce political institutions.
After the martial victory in July 1994, the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) organised a coalition government led by Paul Kagame.
Under President Paul Kagame, the Rwandan government has worked on policies that promoted reconciliation, maintained security, and ensured justice for the affected people.
Also, considerable progress has also been made in including women and youth in politics. According to Intra-Parliamentary Union (IPU) data, Rwanda has the highest number of women representatives in government globally.
There are 61.25% of women representatives in the Rwandan Government.
However, many critics of the Kagame government have accused it of having “highly centralised political power, nonexistent political opposition, weak civil society, and limited media freedom.”
Despite possible flaws in its methods, the Rwandan government has continued to build political systems that will ensure it is less susceptible to political situations that trigger crises like the 1994 Genocide.
Beyond Rwanda, African States remain very fragile.
In the last 4 years, there have been threats to democracy in Africa – the emergence of coups, controversial elections, and a clampdown on political inclusion.
These questions linger from our last read on Rwanda:
How fragile is my community?
How fair are the social, economic, and political systems in my county?
And how far is my country today from April 7, 1994, somewhere in Rwanda?
Rwanda: Less Fragile
Besides Rwanda’s conflicted ethnic and economic history, there were extant political and social vulnerabilities that weakened the polity and finally broke the fragile state in 1994.
Its political fragility ranked as one of its highest threats as of 2006 but ranks the least of its troubles as of 2023, its Fragile State Sub-Indices shows.
This shows that the reduction in the country’s overall Fragile State Index is due to a significant reduction in its political, economic, and social threats and little reduction in the incohesive state of ethnic and elite relations.
Further analysis reveals that the fragility problems Rwanda wrestled with in the 18-year period reviewed were social and lack of cohesion threats.
The easiest problems the government was able to tackle were political and economic threats, going by the average score of the sub-indices.
However, Kigame’s 25-year-long government appears to have no concrete answer to the (in)cohesion question. Problems with group grievance and factionalisation remain as much as with the country’s security apparatus.
Political Threats
Rwanda has made progress reducing its 3 main political threats in the past 18 years.
The score for human rights and the rule of law in Rwanda improved, reducing the threat level score from 7.7 in 2006 to 6.2 in 2023.