Political Antecedents or Mere Accidents?
Despite the mystery that trailed his identity and academic credentials since 1999, the foremost selling point of candidate Tinubu in the 2023 presidential elections remained his governance performance in Lagos from 1999 to 2003.
Some believe he still hires and fires the pilots and copilots of governance in that state to date.
In a way, Candidate Tinubu seemed to be saying: “See what I did (and what I’m still doing indirectly) for the state in Lagos, I’ll do for the country in Abuja.” And quite a number of people believed him, especially the older voters.
Six months into his government now from Abuja, some of those who believed in him are beginning to doubt his capacity to demonstrate his development craft at the national level.
Could Tinubu have fallen early into Nigeria’s national governance trap?
Could the governance trappings of Abuja have veiled and led him unawares into the trap he once deactivated in Lagos?
Fourteen years ago, as part of Princeton University’s Oral History programme, Governance Traps, Graeme Blair interviewed Bola Tinubu on his perceived transformational work in the densely populated, thinly landed city-state of Lagos.
This was two years after Mr Tinubu’s exit from the office of the Governor of Lagos State.
Besides the academia, quite a number of the older folks who voted Mr Bola Tinubu into the office of the president refer to his days as governor of Lagos State.
A Tale of Two Capitals
In some way, Bola Tinubu is the third figure in the transition of leadership from Lagos to Abuja. The first and immediate past presidents of Nigeria since 2009, Presidents Obasanjo and Buhari, had governed Nigeria from Lagos, the country’s former capital, and returned years later to govern same in Abuja, the new capital of the country.
However, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is distinct in that he is the first former state governor and federal lawmaker to be awarded the Grand Commander of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, a title reserved for Nigeria’s Presidents only.
Of course, he takes over from a former state governor, Muhammadu Buhari, who, in 1983, sacked a constitutional government, cancelled Nigeria’s constitution, rubbished the rule of law, and decreed that his own word was law, together with that of his uniformed cohorts, chief of which is one Tunde Idiagbon of blessed memory.
Before Buhari’s second advent as a civilian politician, he had a remarkable, albeit ruthless, career as a combatant politician.
He was first selected by the military regime of Murtala Mohammed as the Governor of North-Eastern State (August 1, 1975 – March 31, 1976). Later, he led a coup de-tat that toppled President Shehu Shagari to become Nigeria’s Head of State between 1983 and 1985.
Mr Buhari’s successor, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has both a mutual and opposite political antecedent. He was a governor like Buhari, but he was a lawmaker and not otherwise.
Political Antecedents or Mere Accidents?
Currently, Tinubu is called to deactivate what appears to be a new kind of governance trap. Could Tinubu’s Lagos governance playbook work now and here in Abuja?
For his predecessors with a Lagos background, it appears that their political antecedents in Lagos played a role in their performance in Abuja.
Olusegun Obasanjo, a combatant politician while governing Nigeria from Lagos performed credibly on the economic front but showed flagrant disregard for the rule of law.
He defied the judiciary when he disobeyed court orders and continued to withhold Lagos State funds. He defied the legislature when he induced and bullied them to change the law to extend his presidential term beyond 8 years. The plot failed.