On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was returned as President-elect of the United States after losing his re-election bid in 2020. Trump is the first person to be elected to two non-consecutive terms as US President since Grover Cleveland, who served as the 22nd president and 24th president, the latter term beginning in 1883.
Many propositions have emerged about why Trump won and his opponent, Kamala Harris, lost. In the end, only one candidate could take the victory—whether it was Trump, Harris, Stein, Kennedy, or anyone else.
Yet, the unique circumstances that surrounded the election stirred significant concern, especially with Biden stepping down from the presidential race just 104 days before Election Day.
Analysts say Trump’s positions on key issues like immigration, Israel’s war, abortion rights, and the economy increased his chances of winning.
In the case of Kamala Harris, some suggested it is because she is a woman and a black American with South Asian heritage. Others argue she focused too much on abortion rights and did not clearly define her stance on the Middle East conflict, the economy, or how she would do things differently from Joe Biden.
Donald Trump modified his position on abortion by initially stating that the issue should be left to each state to decide and later reinforcing this stance by pledging to veto any national abortion ban.
Kamala’s loss may not solely come down to questions of race and gender. Voters’ assessment of Biden’s performance on essential issues like inflation and immigration was negative, which might have influenced their perception of Kamala’s ability to handle the issues.
The salience of these issues directly or indirectly explains why voters in the swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—leaned red this time, contrasting with their 2020 voting pattern when Trump lost to Biden and Harris.
Trump won all the swing states in the 2024 election compared to 2020 when he lost in all except in North Carolina.
In Kamala Harris’ case, she lost in all the swing states where Biden and her had won in the 2020 election. Whether it’s socio-economic issues, gender or race, many factors shape how people vote in elections, often weaving together in complex, interconnected ways that influence individual choices.
Notably, the powerful forces of identity and racial politics also shaped voter demographics in the 2024 US election with ballots reflecting more than just policy issues.
Harris performed better with women than men, except among black men. However, her support among women significantly declined, as referenda protecting abortion rights lessened the need to elect pro-choice candidates, allowing voters to keep abortion legal through direct voting. Seeing this shift, Trump clarified he would avoid federal action on abortion, which opened the door for many pro-choice voters to support him over other issues like the economy and immigration.
Immigration
A Statista survey conducted between 2012 and 2023 on Americans’ perceptions of immigration levels revealed that a majority of respondents were dissatisfied. This suggests that, in the 2024 Presidential election, American voters likely favoured the candidate that prioritises migration issues.