This November, Nigeria and nearly 200 other nations will convene for the 29th time at the Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan to review global climate efforts aimed at limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This time, all the countries — from top emitters to those on the frontline bearing the heaviest burdens of climate change – will gather in the same conference room to discuss where the world stands and the way forward.
After two weeks of checking in and catching up on humanity’s struggle against a warming world, some will return to lush landscapes, while others will go back to lands scorched and seas encroaching.
Regardless, all are bound by a truth that needs no translation; the climate clock ticks for all, but it ticks faster for some than others.
Beyond serving as a platform for countries, especially those deemed vulnerable to climate impacts, to advocate for enhanced support and solutions, COP meetings also provide an opportunity to assess how at-risk nations in Africa including Nigeria, are advancing on their journey toward zero carbon.
Is there genuine progress, or merely an illusion of change, masked by ambitious pledges and targets yet to be met?
In two major reports on the first-ever global stocktake, the United Nations warns that the world is significantly off track in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement and emphasizes the need for urgent action to combat the growing threats posed by climate change.
While the Paris Agreement has driven global and national climate action, there remains a significant shortfall in emissions reductions.
The situation varies by country, and for Nigeria, a similar trend is playing out.
Notably, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel combustion in Nigeria, a major source of greenhouse gases, rose by 127%, from 44.331 mega tonnes (Mt) in 2000 to 100.389 Mt in 2022.
When compared with its peers in the African region, Nigeria is ranked as the fourth highest emitter of CO2 from fuel combustion in Africa in 2022. This is closely tied to the country’s dependence on fossil fuels for energy production, particularly oil and gas, which constitute a significant portion of its energy mix.
The country’s heavy reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources not only contributes to high emissions but underscores the urgent need for a transition to more sustainable alternatives.
In addition to the emission from fuel combustion, carbon emission comes from other sectors of the economy, including the transportation sector, which has consistently been the largest emitter of CO₂ over the past 22 years. Other sectors, such as industry and electricity and heat production, also contribute significantly to emissions in the atmosphere.
Carbon emissions from residential sources are also partly driven by the energy access gap among Nigeria’s population. With only 25.6% of Nigerians able to access clean fuels and cooking technologies, many households still rely on traditional biomass fuels like wood and charcoal. This reliance not only elevates carbon emissions but also exacerbates health risks from indoor air pollution.
Moreover, the widespread use of these biomass fuels like firewood contributes to deforestation and increases greenhouse gas emissions, further compounding Nigeria’s environmental challenges. Expanding access to cleaner cooking solutions could be a crucial step in reducing emissions and improving public health, aligning with Nigeria’s broader climate goals as it strives to meet global standards that will be discussed at COP29.
As Nigeria grapples with these challenges, its susceptibility to the negative impacts of climate change intensifies, and its preparedness for climate resilience remains uncertain. This is evident in its score of 39.41 out of 100 on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index (NG-GAIN 2022, updated in August 2024). This index evaluates a country’s vulnerability to climate change and its readiness for both mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Funmilayo is a Research Analyst at Dataphyte, where she utilises data to craft engaging narratives about government policies and programs and their impact on the public.