As Nigerians look forward to the 2023 election year, the tottering state seeks a president that can, at least, hold the cracks together for another 4 years and bandage the gaping wounds of 80 million lacerated souls nibbled away by hunger pangs.
Survivors from every part of the federation seek a president who can prop up the mental fractures of millions of listless and restless young people till the much needed national reconstruction begins.
However, to force a departure from old campaign scams, there is a need to scan present incidents, score past presidents and schedule preset indices that any serious-minded presidential candidate can deploy to set new precedents.
In the last 60 years, Nigeria has had just 7 civilian presidents. The rest have been military heads of state and one military president. The 4 Presidents are Olusegun Obasanjo, Musa Yar’Adua (Late), Goodluck Jonathan, and Muhammadu Buhari.
In the last 60 years, Nigeria has had just 7 civilian presidents. The rest have been military heads of state and one military president. The 7 Presidents are Nnamdi Azikiwe, Shehu Shagari, Ernest Shonekan, Olusegun Obasanjo, Musa Yar’Adua (Late), Goodluck Jonathan, and Muhammadu Buhari.
While the last 4 presidents were the only ones that emerged successively without any military intrusion, they have supervised a country on the brink of collapse.
Each of them rose on the promise that they would make the country better than their predecessor(s). None of them ever said they would make life worse for the citizens.
Some people opine that those campaign promises are, in the first instance, pedestrian, and below the usual discourse of candidates vying for elective posts in more stable countries.
Even then, the masses cry out that subsequent presidents fail to keep these campaign promises. Instead, their spokespersons discount the people’s complaints as mere grudges by disgruntled opposition members.
They often go away with these coverups because the campaign promises are usually not set in numbers in the first place. So there are hardly any agreed numerical yardsticks for measuring the performance of the elected officials or the disappointments of the people.
Yet, the last of them, Muhammadu Buhari, a retired general in the Army, supervised the worst progressive bloodbath in the country in recent times. Actually, in 2014 many believed the worst killings were happening under his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan.
But the horrible statistics of unchecked violence and unending massacres all over the country from 2015 to date, present a grim spectacle of ineptitude and indifference that define the 8 years of Mr Buhari’s management of the country’s crises.
Sadly, President Buhari’s actions and inactions towards insecurity impacted the economy, promoted ethnic strife, and worsened food insecurity, as farmers deserted farms to escape the blood tax that citizens pay insurgents who hold sway in many rural and semi-urban areas of the country.
Thus, a combination of economic privation, imminent chaos, political oppression, and social disorder posit Nigeria among the league of failed and failing states, among which Nigeria is the 11th worst state.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to measure a president’s (or governor’s) criminal dereliction of duty because her/his responsibilities have no calibrated targets. So, it is hard to reach a consensus to disapprove or approve of President Buhari’s performance. This then leaves the country in the hands of persons, popularly called presidents, who lack any sense or standard of accountability.
Without setting such quantitative performance expectations, it does not matter the level of palpable misery that the vulnerable masses endure, spokespersons for Presidents and unconscionable party faithful would insist that the existential acid that burns the people is soothing, in so much as it flows like water.
Thus, the minimum any of the 2023 presidential hopefuls can promise now is to sign a pact with the people which states clearly and in numbers what index of economic viability, state cohesion, and political and social wellbeing they intend to achieve in the first 4 years.
Preset Indices expected to be achieved by the next Presidents in 4 Years
A good place to start is with the fragile state index because it presents this holistic evaluation of a country’s wellbeing on 12 indicators that measure a country’s political cohesion, economic, public and social wellbeing.
According to the global index, “The Fragile States Index measures the vulnerability in pre-conflict, active conflict and post-conflict situations. The index comprises twelve conflict risk indicators that are used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment: security apparatus, factionalized elites, group grievance, economic decline, uneven economic development, human flight and brain drain, state legitimacy, public services, human rights and rule of law, demographic pressures, refugees and IDPs, and external intervention. The higher the value of the index, the more “fragile” the country is.”
Now, are there any known presidential candidates that can commit to reducing Nigeria’s fragile state index value from an aggregate of 98 in 2021 to 66.4 or below, between 2023 and 2027? If there is one who dares, he should state how he plans to achieve it. Then the people could sign a pact with him on the ramifications if he fails and if he succeeds?
In the present circumstances, to ask to become at least an average nation in the comity of nations is not too much.
Alternatively, the presidential candidate who feels he can achieve more or less should also state his own targeted index. This provides a framework for easily measuring a President’s failure or success.
If we do not have any of the presidential candidates making any tangible measurable time-bound campaign promises like this, the citizenry may just forget that anything would change.
The Economy
The economy improved most during the 8 years of President Obasanjo (1999-2007). But the highest growth rates were maintained during President Yar’Adua’s administration (2007-2010). The Jonathan administration (2010-2015) and Buhari administration (2015-2019) were periods of steepest economic decline respectively.
With respect to Nigeria as a fragile state, 3 indicators measure its economic downturn. They are economic decline, uneven economic development (income inequality), human flight and brain drain.
First, The Economic decline indicator considers factors related to economic decline within a country. For example, the indicator looks at patterns of the progressive economic decline of the society as a whole as measured by per capita income, Gross National Product, unemployment rates, inflation, productivity, debt, poverty levels, or business failures.
It also takes into account sudden drops in commodity prices, trade revenue, or foreign investment, and any collapse or devaluation of the national currency. The higher the value of the indicator, the greater the economic decline in the country.
Consistent with the trend of economic decline indicators determined by the Fund for Peace, the Dataphyte Research team discovered that since the Obasanjo’s era, there have been greater signs of economic decline in the country.
On the other hand, the Uneven economic development indicator considers inequality within the economy, irrespective of the actual performance of an economy. The higher the value of the index, the higher the inequality in the country’s economy.
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