A glorious exit: The good, the bad, and the Buharian

The law gives Muhammadu Buhari till 12 noon May 29, 2023 to vacate Nigeria’s highest office for the second time as the number one citizen of Nigeria.

But this exit is one with a difference. For the man, it is a glorious one!

“I got what I wanted and will quietly retire to my home town,” he said.

“I consider myself lucky to have been a governor, minister, head of state and now President for two terms,” he added.

“I think it is a good coincidence for me to say goodbye to you, and thank you for tolerating me for almost eight years,” he concluded.

This time he is not forced out of Dodan Barracks, Lagos. Instead, he is the one who now longs to leave Aso Rock, Abuja.

“I am eager to go. I can tell you it has been tough,” he said last July.

Again, we all must praise either the conflicted deities of the fatherland or the cooperative doctors in a foreign land for this glorious exit of Buhari. One of these revived our president when he was very ill.

Thus, General President Muhammadu Buhari (GPMB) not only survived disgrace from an un-found certificate, dethronement by an unsuccessful coup, sorry, impeachment, but he also escaped death from undisclosed cancer.

And finally, he has overcome the rats that resisted his entry into his office and the rumours that his doppelganger, Jubril of Sudan, had acted for him at some time during his presidency.

Now that everyone is sure that it is Buhari of Nigeria that will exit the office of the President this May, let’s see the markers of his 8-year tenure – the good, the bad, and the Buharian markers. 

Wait! What are Buharian markers?

A moment. We’ll surely get to that. 

Let’s discuss the good markers first. These are the 8 things Buhari improved in his 8 years in office.

1. Buhari managed Nigeria’s State Security Threats better than his predecessor

The Fund for Peace adjudged Nigeria a highly insecure place with an 8.7 score in its security apparatus score, where a score of 10 represented the worst forms of security threat faced by a failed state.  

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However, the organisation, which produces the Global Annual Fragile State Index, weighed Buhari’s government to have managed security better than his predecessor, by considering the following 4 points:

• Monopoly on the Use of Force
• Military: Is the military under civilian control?
• Militias: Do private militias exist against the state?
• Paramilitary: Is there paramilitary activity?
• Private Forces: Do private armies exist to protect assets?
• Guerillas: Are there guerilla forces operating in the state? Do they control territory?

• Relationship Between Security and Citizenry
• Professionalization of Police: Are the police considered to be professional?
• Political Violence: Is violence often state-sponsored and politically motivated?
• Government Response to Security Threats: Is the government dealing well with any insurgency or security situation?

• Force
• Use of Force: Does the military and police maintain proper use of force?
• Accusations of Police Brutality: Are there accusations of police brutality?

• Arms
• Arms Proliferation: Is there a high availability of weapons?
• DDR Program: If in reconstruction, is there an adequate plan for demobilization, disarmament and reintegration of former combatants?

2. Buhari’s government addressed certain religious and ethnic group grievances more than all his predecessors

According to the Fund for Peace, “The Group Grievance Indicator focuses on divisions and schisms between different groups in society – particularly divisions based on social or political characteristics – and their role in access to services or resources, and inclusion in the political process.

“Group Grievance may also have a historical component, where aggrieved communal groups cite injustices of the past, sometimes going back centuries, that influence and shape that group’s role in society and relationships with other groups.”

It appears Mr Buhari’s emergence as the President and his unconventional approach towards inclusion in appointments, compensated not a few aggrieved groups in the country.

However, the Fund for Peace notes that “Groups may also feel aggrieved because they are denied autonomy, self-determination or political independence to which they believe they are entitled.” 

This may be the case for self-determination groups such as the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) and the Nigerian Indigenous Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS).

3. Buhari’s administration reduced economic inequality among the people

Now this can’t be true! You can feel it everywhere. People are becoming poorer every day…😡

Yes. 

But it happens that the poorest too are emerging to be among the poorer. When that happens, the poor who become poorer complain while the poorest who become poorer exhale.

Dataphyte Research fact-checked The Fund for Peace’s estimations on Nigeria’s reducing inequality with World Bank’s data and found it credible, at least till 2018.

Economic Inequality has been on the decline in Nigeria since the return to civilian rule in 1999. It is to the credit of Olusegun Obasanjo’s administration that it reduced inequality among the people the most till now by 11.8 points, World Bank data shows.

To his own credit, Muhammadu Buhari met inequality on the rise again from 35.5% to 35.9% in 2015. He has succeeded in reducing it by 0.8 points to 35.1% as of 2018, according to the most recent data from the World Bank.

And economic inequality has decreased even further since 2018.

The Fund for Peace estimations for Nigeria suggests that, while inequality still remains relatively high, it further decreased from 8.3 points in 2018 to 7.7 points in 2021 and just recently rose to 8.1 in 2023.

4. Human Flight and Brain Drain Reduced under the Buhari Administration!

Now, this must be a huge joke!

Do these guys know what is called Japa?

Or could some mole in Buhari’s party, the ruling All Progressive Congress, work for the Fund for Peace?

The Japa wave is worse than Brain Drain and Human Flight! 

But is that really the case?

Dataphyte Research noted that “In 2021, One million, One hundred and Nine Thousand, Six hundred and Twenty-one passengers (1,109,621) arrived the country, while One million, One hundred and Nine Thousand, Five hundred and Twenty-Five (1,109,525) passengers departed.

“Two things could be responsible for this. Many of the people who are travelling out are also returning, or more foreign citizens are relocating to Nigeria to replace citizens who are relocating abroad.

“Why are people turning or returning to Nigeria?

“Despite the reckless steering of the ship of state, some folks seem to understand the vast blessings and huge potential this country offers now and in the future. In other words, they jasi,” the Data Dive explained.

5. Buhari’s government earned more Legitimacy than his 3 Predecessors

Fine. Nigerian governments do not have great approval ratings among their citizens. But that also depends on who you ask or which demographic, ethnic or religious group you are asking.

“Though the State Legitimacy indicator does not necessarily make a judgment on democratic governance, it does consider the integrity of elections where they take place (such as flawed or boycotted elections), the nature of political transitions, and where there is an absence of democratic elections, the degree to which the government is representative of the population of which it governs,” the Fund for Peace explained.